Prudent Portfolio: June 2005

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Week of June 20th Performance

The Prudent Portfolio has given back most of the gains it made during last week's amazing performance. For the week, the Prudent Portfolio is down 2.96%. Last week's biggest gainer, Ford, is this week's biggest loser, down 9.49%. Here's how the portfolio looks as of Friday's close:

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Current Price Per Share	Current Value	Week's % Chg.
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$56.69	$8,307	-3.87%
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$58.21	$8,585	-4.07%
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$58.05	$8,257	-3.49%
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$34.14	$8,335	-1.59%
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$10.21	$8,154	-9.49%
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$84.70	$8,164	-0.12%
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$72.56	$8,015	-3.48%
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$91.42	$8,393	-6.57%
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$58.40	$8,581	0.05%
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$72.30	$8,348	-2.34%
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$24.71	$8,526	3.48%
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$18.50	$7,962	-3.44%
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000		$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000		$100,627	-2.96%
S&P 500 Index Performance							-2.09%

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 10:49 AM

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Prudent Portfolio - Midweek Update

The Prudent Portfolio has given back some of the gains it made during last week's amazing performance. For the week, the Prudent Portfolio is down .52%. Last week's biggest gainer, Ford, is this week's biggest loser, down 5.32%. Here's how the portfolio looks as of Wednesday's close:

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Current Price Per Share	Current Value
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$58.27	$8,539
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$58.41	$8,614
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$60.27	$8,573
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$34.95	$8,533
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$10.68	$8,530
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$85.25	$8,217
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$74.21	$8,197
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$94.15	$8,644
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$58.93	$8,658
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$74.88	$8,646
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$25.40	$8,764
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$19.14	$8,237
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000		$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000		$103,152

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 9:23 PM

Monday, June 20, 2005

The Objective of the Prudent Portfolio

FMF posted a comment to this post. He makes some good points so I'll address them here.

Objective for the Prudent Portfolio

The objective of the Prudent Portfolio is to outperform (after fees otherwise you'd do better simply buying an index fund!) the S&P 500 Index by buying stocks in the index that are undervalued based on P/E ratios, dividend yields, and other value measures (I can't divulge all my secrets). The stocks will be chosen once per year, with the exception of this year when I will rebalance in late December in order to put the portfolio on the calendar year.

Rebalancing (criteria for selling stocks)

By rebalancing, I mean that I will run my value screens and make adjustments based on those results. If a stock is not listed on the new value screen, it will be sold. In most cases, stocks will be held a year. In some rare instances, I may sell a stock mid-year if I feel it is necessary. However, the Prudent Portfolio is not a day-trading portfolio. Rather, I want to focus on long-term growth.

Stock Selection

As I stated earlier, stocks will be chosen using a value screen. If I run the screen and no stocks appear undervalued, no stocks will be chosen for the year. This is an unlikely scenario but if it should occur the market as a whole would be "overvalued" in my opinion and it would be smart to stay away.

Fees

It is my goal to make this portfolio as realistic as possible. Therefore, I will include fees in my calculations. The fees will be as follows:

	Annual Fee	Quarterly Fee
FOLIOfn	.40%	.10%
PrudentPortfolio	.65%	.1625%
Total Fees	1.05%	.2625%

As the portfolio grows, the fees will decline, based on the following schedule:

FOLIOfn Fee Schedule	Annual Fee
First $250,000	.40%
Next $250,000	.30%
Above $500,000	.20%

Prudent Portfolio Fee Schedule	Annual Fee
$100,000 to $499,999	.65%
$500,000 to $999,9999	.55%
$1,000,000 to $1,999,999	.45%
$2,000,000 to $4,999,999	.35%
$5,000,000 and Above	.25%

# posted by JLP @ 11:02 AM

Saturday, June 18, 2005

Individual Stock Performance

Here's a list of the stocks in the Prudent Portfolio in order of their performance. Although this is the performance for the first week, I will keep updating these totals since inception.

Company	Symbol	Price Per Share*	Friday's Closing Price	$ Change	% Change
Ford	F	$10.33	$11.28	$0.95	9.20%
Phelps Dodge	PD	$89.86	$97.85	$7.99	8.89%
ConocoPhillips	COP	$55.94	$60.68	$4.74	8.47%
Chevron	CVX	$56.30	$58.97	$2.67	4.74%
MBIA	MBI	$56.15	$58.37	$2.22	3.95%
Fannie Mae	FNM	$58.00	$60.15	$2.15	3.71%
Cummins	CMI	$71.45	$74.03	$2.58	3.61%
National City Corp.	NCC	$33.79	$34.69	$0.90	2.66%
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	$74.69	$75.18	$0.49	0.66%
Cooper Tire	CTB	$19.17	$19.16	-$0.01	-0.05%
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	$23.91	$23.88	-$0.03	-0.13%
Chubb	CB	$85.59	$84.80	-$0.79	-0.92%

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 8:45 AM

Friday, June 17, 2005

Week of June 13 Performance

The Prudent Portfolio had an excellent first week. The portfolio ended the week at $103,696, up 3.7% for the week.

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Current Price Per Share	Current Value
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$58.97	$8,641
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$60.68	$8,949
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$60.15	$8,556
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$34.69	$8,470
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$11.28	$9,009
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$84.80	$8,174
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$75.18	$8,304
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$97.85	$8,984
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$58.37	$8,576
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$74.03	$8,548
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$23.88	$8,240
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$19.16	$8,246
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000		$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000		$103,696

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 2:43 PM

Thursday, June 16, 2005

Day 4 - Close

Thursday, June 16, Closing Update I thought I'd go ahead and update since I'm working on this anyway. The Prudent Portfolio saw another pretty good day. The portfolio as a whole is up 2.98% since Monday, while the S&P 500 Index is up 1.07% since Monday. Since all the stocks were chosen from the S&P 500 Index, I thought it would be good to use it as the Prudent Portfolio's benchmark. Although you won't see it on the table below, I will add data for the S&P so that we can easily compare performances.

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Current Price Per Share	Current Value
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$57.92	$8,487
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$58.60	$8,642
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$58.90	$8,378
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$34.45	$8,411
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$11.37	$9,081
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$85.24	$8,216
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$74.76	$8,258
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$96.54	$8,863
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$58.36	$8,575
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$72.39	$8,359
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$24.10	$8,316
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$19.51	$8,396
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000		$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000		$102,982

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 2:31 PM

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Day 3 - Close

Phelps Dodge has gone up nearly $5.00 per share since this portfolio was put together. I certainly didn't expect that! Overall, the portfolio is doing well. As of Wednesday's close, the value of the Prudent Portfolio sits at $101,981. Someone asked me to do a little blurb as to why I put each company into the portfolio. All I can say is that this is 100% quantitative. I ran several value screens and this is the list that came up. That's it! Of course, you have to know what screens to run but it's really not rocket science when you are looking for value.

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Current Price Per Share	Current Value
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$56.84	$8,329
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$57.33	$8,455
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$58.05	$8,268
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$34.31	$8,377
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$11.16	$8,913
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$84.87	$8,181
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$74.76	$8,258
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$94.52	$8,678
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$59.13	$8,688
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$71.25	$8,227
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$23.98	$8,274
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$19.39	$8,344
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000		$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000		$101,981

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 10:28 PM

Monday, June 13, 2005

First Day's Close

The Prudent Portfolio closed up $278. I don't plan on updating every day - probably weekly. First, it is a pain in the behind updating the numbers manually and second, I don't want this to be construed as a daytrading portfolio. I want to keep the focus long-term. As a side, if anyone knows how to set up a table to automatically update, PLEASE let me know.

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Current Price Per Share	Current Value
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$56.01	$8,208
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$56.00	$8,259
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$58.13	$8,268
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$33.69	$8,226
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$10.52	$8,402
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$84.37	$8,132
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$73.75	$8,146
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$91.85	$8,433
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$56.89	$8,359
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$72.03	$8,317
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$24.02	$8,288
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$19.15	$8,241
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000		$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000		$100,278

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 7:56 PM

The Prudent Portfolio Update

The model portfolio I set up with folioFN has been processed. Since it is mid-year, I will run my screens again in December and make adjustments so that the Prudent Portfolio is on a calendar year, which will make tracking the performance against the benchmark much easier. Also, on June 30, I will deduct pro-rated fees from the portfolio's cash account. the reason I am deducting fees is that I want this to be as realistic as possible.

Company	Symbol	Shares	Price Per Share*	Amount Invested	Expected Div. Income
Chevron	CVX	146.53641	$56.30	$8,250	$146
ConocoPhillips	COP	147.47944	$55.94	$8,250	$147
Fannie Mae	FNM	142.24138	$58.00	$8,250	$142
National City Corp.	NCC	244.15507	$33.79	$8,250	$244
Ford Motor Co.	F	798.64472	$10.33	$8,250	$798
Chubb	CB	96.38977	$85.59	$8,250	$96
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110.45655	$74.69	$8,250	$110
Phelps Dodge	PD	91.80948	$89.86	$8,250	$91
MBIA	MBI	146.92787	$56.15	$8,250	$146
Cummins	CMI	115.46537	$71.45	$8,250	$115
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	345.04391	$23.91	$8,250	$344
Cooper Tire	CTB	430.35994	$19.17	$8,250	$430
Cash Account		1000	$1.00	$1,000
Portfolio Totals				$100,000	$2809

*Rounded to nearest penny.

# posted by JLP @ 8:35 AM

Saturday, June 11, 2005

The Prudent Portfolio

The Prudent Portfolio is a value portfolio. I screened for stocks with high dividend yields, low price/earnings ratios, and other such measures used in detecting "value." I used the Standard & Poors 500 Index as my universe. I set up the Prudent Portfolio blog to track the performance of the Prudent Portfolio. I have used this method for stock selection in the past with pretty good success. A $100,000 invested in this strategy in July 2002 would now be worth over $152,000 for an average annual return of 14.98%. But, that's history and for the Prudent Porfolio, I want to start fresh. So, I'll be investing $100,000 using the Folio Advisor platform. I chose the stocks last night and set up a folio with folioFN. Although the chart lists the number of shares the final numbers will be available sometime Monday, as I am trying to make this as realistic as possible. In that vain, the results will be adjusted quarterly for fees, which will be .40% annually for folioFN and .65% annually to P Financial Planning. Now it's time for an important NOTE: This portfolio is not a recommendation. If you follow these stocks and invest your own money, you accept responsibility for any losses that might occur. This is a hypothetical portfolio. I don't own any of these stocks except Chevron. Now, here's the list:

Company	Symbol	Shares	Yield	Income From Dividends
Chevron	CVX	146	3.20%	$264
ConocoPhillips	COP	147	2.22%	$183
Fannie Mae	FNM	142	1.79%	$148
National City Corp.	NCC	244	4.14%	$342
Ford Motor Co.	F	798	3.87%	$319
Chubb	CB	96	2.01%	$166
XL Capital Ltd.	XL	110	2.68%	$221
Phelps Dodge	PD	91	1.11%	$92
MBIA	MBI	146	1.99%	$165
Cummins	CMI	115	1.68%	$139
Louisiana Pacific	LPX	344	2.09%	$173
Cooper Tire	CTB	430	2.19%	$181
Total Expected Dividends for Portfolio			2.39%	$2,391

# posted by JLP @ 9:48 PM

Stocks Selected for the Prudent Portfolio

Chevron - CVX
Conoco - COP
Fannie Mae - FNM
National City Corp. - NCC
Chubb - CB
XL Capital Ltd. - XL
Phelps Dodge - PD
MBIA - MBI
Cummins - CMI
Louisiana Pacific - LPX
Cooper Tire - CTB

# posted by JLP @ 8:30 AM

Prudent Portfolio

Saturday, June 25, 2005

Week of June 20th Performance

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

Prudent Portfolio - Midweek Update

Monday, June 20, 2005

The Objective of the Prudent Portfolio

Saturday, June 18, 2005

Individual Stock Performance

Friday, June 17, 2005

Week of June 13 Performance

Thursday, June 16, 2005

Day 4 - Close

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Day 3 - Close

Monday, June 13, 2005

First Day's Close

The Prudent Portfolio Update

Saturday, June 11, 2005

The Prudent Portfolio

Stocks Selected for the Prudent Portfolio

About Me

Links

Archives